Predicting the Big Stories in 2006

Gotham Gazette | December 19, 2005

"Expect the unexpected," Assemblymember and Brooklyn political boss Clarence Norman said last year when we asked him to be one of the New Yorkers predicting for us what would happen in New York City in 2005. Norman certainly was right. In the 12 months since he made that prediction,the man who once controlled Brooklyn politics was stripped of his positions, convicted of various felonies and faces 15 years in prison.Norman was not the only person who proved prescient. Brian Lehrer accurately predicted that Fernando Ferrer would win the Democratic primary only to lose to Bloomberg in the general election. The New Yorker’s Elizabeth Kolbert demonstrated dead-on accuracy when she told us, "With Jon Corzine running for governor in New Jersey and Michael Bloomberg winning re-electing in the city, it promises to be a very good year for political ad buyers."But not everyone fared so well. Many respondents thought the West Side Stadium would move forward - or, as writer Kevin Baker put it, "the smug little mayor will get his stadium, wasting billions in needed tax dollars and continuing to wreck the West Side skyline." And, unfortunately for the mayor, Eric Adams of 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement who Care, missed the mark when he forecast, "Jennifer Lopez will marry her fourth husband, Mayor Bloomberg." (Indeed, has anybody heard any talk at all anymore emanating from City Hall about J-lo?)This year, our leading New Yorkers seem preoccupied by the statewide elections and the spreading of luxury condos and posh shops into the outer boroughs. But they touched on other topics as well. When you finish finding out what they think, react to their forecasts or make your own on our 2006 Predictions message board.Anthony Weiner, Democratic member of Congress from Brooklyn and Queens:The Mets will win the World Series and the Democrats will sweep the elections and take back the State Senate.Gene Russianoff, senior attorney for the New York Public Interest research Group:On transit;--The transit fare will not go up in 2006.--The Metropolitan Transportation Authority will offer holiday fare breaks for a second year in a row.--Transit officials will pledge to triple the number of trains "right behind this one."(A joke, hopefully.)On other issues:--The City Council will come to its senses and abandon plans to extend term limits by their own legislation.--Hillary Duff will replace Deputy Mayor Dan DoctoroffTom Brokaw, former NBC news anchor:I hope and expect that the most important story will be the continuing improvement in New York City public education.Richard Gottfried, Democratic State Assembly member from the Upper West Side:The most important story in the coming year for the city will be whatever develops in Albany on school funding issue. The elevated anxiety of the state's Republicans should work to the city's advantage, but I don't know what the outcome will be. The '06 elections, particularly for the State Senate, will have a significant impact on Albany. And lots of what Albany does means life or death for the city.Demetri Martin, comedian:In the next year, even more will happen than last year. Television will make it so that there is news happening at every minute, and they will make you think that you should not miss it. At least two people will fight over a cab in the cold weather. There will be more bumper stickers about not liking the president.Andrea Batista Schlesinger, executive director, Drum Major Institute:Progressivism will become the new patriotism. New York’s middle class will continue becoming the new have-nots. The New York Post will become the new National Enquirer. Insurance regulation will become the new tax cuts. And most importantly, when it comes to being a fresh source of ideas about how to govern fairly and effectively, New York City will become the new Washington, D.C.Jami Bernard, film critic, New York Daily News:Uncool is the new cool -- thanks not only to market forces but to the basic oppositional nature of New Yorkers. The boroughs become cool and so does long-neglected Roosevelt Island (really, any place where there's a water view and undeveloped real estate). Small portions of food are in, leading to a rise in a new type of trendy restaurant that serves grazing-style -- good for weight-watching but also a New York response to the proliferation of the Big Gulp lifestyle in the rest of the land and a reflection of the fact that most New Yorkers either suffer from Attention Deficit Disorder of just like saying so in order to get those great meds.Brooklyn Borough President Marty MarkowitzThose responsible for polluting Newtown Creek will be held accountable for their actions. The plan to restore Coney Island as "America's Favorite Playground" will make waves, and the Parachute Jump will return as Brooklyn's Eiffel Tower when it is lit up for all to see.The docking of the Queen Mary 2 and Crown Princess cruise ships in Red Hook will ensure that more visitors than ever experience the Brooklyn renaissance.The Brooklyn baby boom will continue unabated.The voices of parents and educators will regain their rightful place in the school-reform dialogue.John Avlon, columnist, New York Sun:Queens Will Be the New Brooklyn. And so will the Bronx and Staten Island - the resurgence of what used to be called the "outer-boroughs" will continue beyond the now-tony confines of Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights. This will not just be the healthy upside of a city in resurgence, just five years after the attacks of 9/11 - but also the downside of Manhattan's increasing squeeze on middle class and even upper middle class New Yorkers. The spacious apartments, invigorating diversity, and relative calm of the outer-boroughs looks better and better. Whether their modest quality of life improvements can compete indefinitely with warmer and less expensive cities and states is a longer-term issue, which I hope someone in City Hall is strategizing on. With regard to Queens, its status as the most diverse county in the country will be further elevated with the arrival of Carlos Delgado to the Mets.Elizabeth Kolbert, writer for The New Yorker magazine:Democrats sweep the four statewide offices. Hillary Clinton runs unopposed.Kevin Baker, author “Paradise Alley,” “Dreamland” and “Strivers”My prediction is that there will be a major terrorist incident in New York. I don’t say this out of any special expertise, and of course I hope to hell that I’m wrong. But I believe that we must speak now against the day.In the immediate wake of the London transit bombings, Governor Pataki and Mayor Bloomberg rushed to Grand Central Station, to assure us that we were protected by special, hidden security measures. This was almost undoubtedly a lie, but in any case irrelevant.Our strategy cannot be to wait for terrorist acts to begin, but to do as much as possible to prevent them from happening in the first place. Anyone who regularly visits our major public places can see that such a strategy is not in place—the few, inattentive, uniformed guardsmen, usually talking to each other; the scant police presence. Meanwhile, major resources are wasted on such ludicrously ineffectual, easily avoidable measures as subway bag searches and van inspections. Without a strong, constant, and vigilant security presence in Times Square, Grand Central, Penn Station, and other likely targets, we are inviting disaster.Majora Carter, executive director, Sustainable South Bronx and MacArthur fellow:If we don’t engage about development in the Bronx and coordinate what is actually going on with all these huge projects, what took place in the Bronx during the Robert Moses era will happen again, affecting quality of life, pollution and displacing people. No one is asking any serious questions or following proper planning procedures and the city could end up paying.Bruce Ratner, developerIt will be a calm year in the sense that the same economic growth, focus on improving education, housing development, and improved safety that we have enjoyed for the last three years will continue. It will be steady, positive growth -- nothing dramatic.Letitia James, Democratic City councilmember from Brooklyn:My New Years wish would be that Bruce Ratner finds religion. That he wakes up on January 1, realizes he has done the wrong thing in proposing the Atlantic Yards project, and stands on the corner of Atlantic and Flatbush Avenues waving a white flag.I pray that Marty Markowitz will realize that there are poor people in Brooklyn, and instead of diverting public revenues to build a basketball arena, he decides to build a hospital instead.I hope that Senator Charles Schumer will recognize that his home could be taken by eminent domain if a developer wanted it.And I would like the mayor to spend a night in a homeless shelter.Simeon Bankoff, Historic Districts Council:1. As all the young renters are pushed out of Williamsburg and Greenpoint, Astoria/Long Island City will officially become the “hot new nabe.” This will last only a year at best before high-rise waterfront development will price out the renting twenty-somethings.2. New historic districts will be designated in Brooklyn, The Bronx and Queens - but developers will rally against landmarking, particularly in The Bronx. Individual landmarks will be all “safe” bets -- expect office buildings, publicly owned buildings, and perhaps a religious building that’s undergoing restoration. Meanwhile, historic religious buildings and schools will continue to close and be demolished throughout the city.3. Movie houses will also continue to close and will be the subject of major preservation battles. So will historic hotel interiors as more and more historic hotels get converted to residential use.4. There will be increased attention from the administration to public art and capital investment in historic buildings, such as schools and fire stations.5. The city will propose to build a new municipal building as part of the World Trade Center redevelopment.6. The new fa

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